Forecasts, Projections, Predictions and Probabilities

“You know, the smallest thing can change a life.  In the blink of an eye, something happens by chance- and when you least expect it- sets you on a course that you could have never planned, into a future you never imagined.  Where will it take you?  That’s the journey of our lives; our search for the light.  But sometimes, finding the light means you must pass through the deepest darkness.  At least that’s how it was for me.”

The Lucky One is a 2012 film starring Zac Efron and Taylor Schilling and it opens with these lines from Logan Thibault, Zac Efron’s character.  It’s one of the movies I love and is on a short list that I watch repeatedly.  Even though I know the story well, it still resonates in my heart and mind and I think these opening lines are one of the main reasons why.  Something relatively insignificant happens and you think nothing of it at the time.  But it changes the direction and course of your life in ways you could never imagine.

One of my buddies in high school and I flipped a coin one night to see who could call a particular girl for a date.  A coin toss- I won and called the girl for a date the next weekend.  Just a coin toss and we will soon celebrate our 50^th wedding anniversary and my whole adult life unfolded from the coin toss.  My kids, my grandkids, whatever legacy I leave behind- all from a coin toss.

Forecasts, projections, predictions and probabilities are so much a part of our lives.  We check the weather forecast and we look for predictions of how our team will do in the next game.  There’s a big industry based on predictions- gambling.  All kinds of statistics are collected, evaluated and analyzed to help us “know” how to place a bet or what to wear the next day.

But one has to wonder about the value of this information when your whole life is altered by something as insignificant as finding a photograph (in The Lucky One) or tossing a coin.

Dear Daddy

Dear Daddy,

I sure do miss you today; Father’s Day 2023.  I would like to come see you, play our guitars, watch some TV, talk, or sing some gospel music.  Things we used to do and enjoy; and it seems like that page of my life has been ripped out of the book. 

I rationalize it away because you felt so bad toward the end and I wouldn’t want you to go through that again.  But once I’ve rationalized, I still miss you and that’s the bottom line for me today.  I love my family, my kids and wife who have made me a father too.  But you were always a source of “wise counsel”, knowledge and wisdom and being with you was always such a great time until you didn’t feel like having visitors any more. 

I do know you are infinitely happy now, at peace and rest, reunited with Mother and I’m so thankful for that.  But it doesn’t take away the sting of being without you here.  I love you! Happy Father’s Day!

Steve

EASTER CELEBRATION

Easter, for me, has always been a mixed bag of emotions crammed into a short period of time.  When I read the Easter story beginning with the triumphal entry into Jerusalem at the beginning of Holy Week, I feel the joy and exuberance of everyone as Jesus rides into town on the donkey.  That is followed by the sad and somber experience of the Last Supper when Jesus tried to explain what was about to happen; then to the anguish of Christ in the Garden of Gethsemane.  As Jesus was arrested and “tried” the cheers of the crown became jeers and shouts of “crucify Him” leading to the horror of the cross.  The sadness, confusion and stunned followers spent a miserable Friday evening and Saturday before the great joy and more confusion of Sunday morning.  What a rapid range of emotions in less than a week!  I’ve never found anything “good” about “Good Friday” and I’ve often wondered who came up with that name.  I understand that it had to be the way it was, and just how greatly I benefit from that horrible day; but it still doesn’t qualify as a “good” day to me.

The celebration of the Messiah’s birth and His Resurrection are the foundation of the Christian faith.  It is essential for us to observe and celebrate both occasions.  I hope you all have a great Easter celebration and I hope we all experience to some degree the spectrum of emotions of the week.

A CANDLE FOR CARTER

Saturday, Feb 4, we’ll celebrate Carter’s sixth birthday.  Seems so hard to believe  We will make our annual trip to a stream of water, drop some flower blooms and light a candle for the day. 

We will take that time to pause and reflect on our short time with Carter and think about how he changed our lives in his three and a half months with us.  Are we still clinging to the lessons we learned or have we slipped back to where we were?

Seems like a good time to think about where we are in general with our lives and the direction we are taking.  Is the road we’re on taking us to anywhere worth going?  I’m not a big fan of dwelling in the past and getting stuck in what if’s.  At the same time, we should know where we’ve been and what we’ve learned. 

“Don’t let your past dictate who you are, but let it be part of who you will become.”  (My Big Fat Greek Wedding).

Happy Birthday Little Buddy! Rest in peace!  I love you, Papa

CELEBRATING 75 YEARS AT SECOND BAPTIST CHURCH

On Oct 16, 2022 my brother and I were invited to celebrate the 75^th anniversary of the church where we were raised and where our parents were long-time members.  When I called to tell them we were coming our friend Gene asked if we would say “a few words about Daddy” since he was such an icon in the church and his friends there, like the rest of us, still miss him terribly.  I felt I could get some really good information on Daddy’s impact on our family from letters we all sent him when he turned 90.  In part here are some excerpts from those letters and what we told the celebrating church:

“Gene asked if we could say a few words about Daddy.  Talking about Daddy is hard to do in a few words, but I have to start with Daddy AND Mama.  They were an inseparable team for about 72 years held together by love and their love for the Lord.  What you saw on Sunday morning were willing servants who faithfully executed just about every job in Second Baptist Church.  Most recently, I guess they were the church treasurers together, but their church resume is much deeper.  Daddy was a deacon for longer than I remember, Sunday School teacher, choir director, youth choir director; Mama played the piano and sang in the choir as long as I can remember.  I would venture a guess that when Daddy was called home last May he was likely the longest tenured member of the church- but that’s just a guess.

And what you saw each Sunday was the same as what you saw Monday through Saturday.  When Daddy turned 90 our family wrote him letters to express our love and appreciation for his influence on our lives.  The underlying theme of many of those letters was his selfless love, integrity and character:

          …selfless unconditional love for me and every other member of your family

          …it is hard to imagine one of you without the other…I have never seen either of you use a harsh word or act in any way which is unloving, unkind or inconsiderate- qualities many marriages do not have today.

          …integrity and character are unquestionable; he is kind and patient to everyone…He and Mama laid the foundation that has held firm through the euphoric highs and devastating lows of life…selfless love

          …we will always be influenced by the gifts of the Spirit that each and every one of us see in you and want to emulate: love, joy, peace, patience, kindness goodness, faithfulness gentleness and self-control.  I have never seen a more complete manifestation of the fruits of the Spirit than in Daddy.

          …you have set the bar high as an example of how we should treat others and love God.

 Our niece’s husband probably summed it up best when he said… as I see you turning 90, I am left with the strange feeling that I am the only one who has aged.  Because what strikes me most about you is not some singular indelible memory that towers above all others, but rather the steadfast consistency that, like a gentle breeze often goes unnoticed.  We have shared holidays and anniversaries, births and deaths, marriages and separations and all the life that happens in between.  And in each event you are the same: faithful, kind, patient.  The very definition of love.  You see it is absolutely true what Maya Angelou once said, ‘at the end of the day people won’t remember what you said or did, they will remember how you make them feel.’

And Daddy made sure we all felt special.”

IF I HAD KNOWN THEN…

If I had known then (specifically June 8, 1974) what I know now how would our lives have been different? Some things we know the answer to the question but some are unknown and will stay that way.

For instance, if I had known then what I know now would I still have wanted to marry you?  You’d better believe it, no doubt about it!  Our life together has been far beyond anything I could have ever imagined at twenty years old.  Brad Paisley’s song, “Then”, pretty well sums that up when he says “I thought I loved you then, but now you’re my whole life, now you’re my whole world; I just can’t believe the way I feel about you girl…. We’ve come so far since that day, and I thought I loved you then.”

If I had known then what I know now, how would it have changed our lives?  That’s the question we can’t answer.  But I would like to speculate some.  If I had known then what I know now, I’d like to think I would not have hurt you during our years together.  I’d like to think I would have realized the importance of our relationship and not do anything to diminish that.  I’d like to think that I would have learned sooner to communicate and talk instead of withdraw during times of stress or disagreement.  I’d like to think that I would have treasured you more, that I would have realized sooner that you are the queen of our house and treated you as royalty.  Experience teaches us so many things; unfortunately some lessons are learned through struggles and hardship.  But when you have been through the fires of marriage for 48 years as we have, you do learn things that you would have liked to have known when you started down that road.

Paisley’s song continues with “I can just see you with a baby on the way”. I have, twice; you were beautiful and delivered two beautiful daughters.  “I can just see you when your hair is turning gray”.  I have, although not much and you are still beautiful.

Paisley’s song concludes with “what I can’t see is how I’m ever gonna love you more…. but I’ve said that before” and I can’t add anything to that!

Happy Anniversary Babe

6/8/1974 – 6/8/2022

DADDY’S HOME

May 4, 2022

I’m sitting by my father’s bed as he slowly slips from this life into eternity.  He’s ready. He’s been ready.  If he’d had his way, he would have packed up, locked the door and left with Mama a year-and-a-half ago.  He survived without her, but you could tell something was missing in his life.  When he decided to move to an assisted living facility he was looking for people he could talk with and make some new friends.  He did that and while he wondered why he wasn’t taken I have to believe one reason was to touch some new lives that he had never met until he moved into the community.  Residents became close friends quickly and all of the care givers and staff noted what a “sweet man” he was.  Residents would stop me in the halls to ask “how’s your dad today”?

As his condition deteriorated he stayed in his apartment more and had his meals delivered instead of going to the cafeteria, prompting even more questions from friends about his condition.  When he was able, we’d go for a wheelchair ride and he would sometimes have a chance to joke around with some of his new friends.  It was easy for me to see that Daddy was “planted” in this assisted living community to be a ray of sunshine and hope to many people.

Now I sit by his side hearing him breathe, struggling to exit this world.  He is not responsive, just breathing.  We’ve been told that hearing is the last sense lost and that we should talk to him and assure him that we are all okay; that we don’t want to lose him but we don’t want to see him struggle this way and he can let go now. I think we’ve all had a run at sharing those thoughts with him, so now there’s nothing left to do but wait.  Wait for that last breath that will reunite him with the woman he loves and their Lord that bound them together.

May 6, 2022

Daddy is still struggling to cross over.  I don’t know if he has unfinished business or exactly what’s holding him here, but he’s fighting hard.  The elusive last breath came about 10:30 this evening.  Daddy is at peace; Daddy is at rest; Daddy is home.

May 8, 2022

The eve of the day I have dreaded for a long time; Daddy’s memorial service is tomorrow morning.  I dread it; have dreaded it for years.  But I’m also anxious to move on.  I know Daddy isn’t suffering anymore and I know he’s infinitely happy, but I know that I am going to miss him so badly and I can’t imagine how that is going to feel.

CARRY ON

It took me several years to realize the spiritual roots of two songs that the rock group Kansas released in the late 1970’s.  In fact, their two biggest hits both written by band member Kerry Livgren.  On both occasions, the band had completed rehearsals for recording an album and Livgren brought in these two songs that actually defined him as a songwriter and made the band a big hit.  Here’s the info on both songs from Wikepedia.  Also following each description are some Bible verses that support the song.

“Carry On Wayward Son” is a song recorded by American rock band Kansas for their 1976 album Leftoverture: written by band member Kerry Livgren, the song became the band’s first Top 40 single, reaching No. 11 on the Billboard Hot 100 in the spring of 1977.^[4]

 “Carry On Wayward Son” was written after the band had completed rehearsals. Livgren, who perceived the song as being “beamed down” to him en toto,^[7] in 2004 stated: “It’s an autobiographical song. Parallel to my musical career I’ve always been on a spiritual sojourn, looking for truth and meaning. It was a song of self-encouragement. I was telling myself to keep on looking and I would find what I sought.”

Let us hold unswervingly to the hope we profess, for He Who promised is faithful. And let us consider how we may spur one another on toward love and good deeds.  Hebrews 10: 23-24

Forgetting what is behind and straining toward what is ahead I press on toward the goal to win the prize for which God has called me heavenward in Christ Jesus. Philippians 3: 13-14

 “Dust in the Wind” is a song recorded by American progressive rock band Kansas and written by band member Kerry Livgren, first released on their 1977 album Point of Know Return.

The title of the song is a Bible reference, paraphrasing Ecclesiastes:^[3]

I reflected on everything that is accomplished by man on earth, and I concluded: Everything he has accomplished is futile — like chasing the wind!^[4]

A meditation on mortality and the inevitability of death, the lyrical theme bears a striking resemblance to the well-known biblical passages Genesis 3:19 (“…for dust thou art, and unto dust shalt thou return.”) and Ecclesiastes 3:20 (“All go to one place. All are from the dust, and to dust all return.”) 

Kerry Livgren devised what would be the guitar line for “Dust in the Wind” as a finger exercise for learning fingerpicking. His wife, Vicci, heard what he was doing, remarked that the melody was nice, and encouraged him to write lyrics for it.^[5] Livgren was unsure whether his fellow band members would like it, since it was a departure from their signature style. After Kansas had rehearsed all the songs intended for the band’s recording sessions of June and July 1976, Livgren played “Dust in the Wind” for his bandmates, who after a moment’s “stunned silence” asked: “Kerry, where has this been?”^[9][5] Kansas guitarist Rich Williams would recall that Livgren played his bandmates “a real rough recording of him playing [‘Dust in the Wind’] on an old reel to reel. [He] just kind of mumbl[ed] the lyrics, [but] even [hearing it] in that bare form…we said: ‘That’s our next single.'”^[10]

^[5]Livgren was born again July 25, 1979, and as of 1980 recorded primarily as a Christian rock artist.^[8]

I think sometimes rock music gets a bad rap (pun intended).  I believe these two songs were given to Livgren during his search for meaning and his “spiritual sojourn” and made the way for his salvation experience in 1979.  And I think the songs have impacted many others including me as we press on toward the “prize”.

“Carry on my wayward son; there’ll be peace when you are done.”

BEAUTY FROM ASHES

I was out for a bike ride a couple of days ago listening to some music.  Pretty normal activities for me; but a song caught my attention.  In the aftermath of Carter’s death we kept praying, wishing and hoping for beauty from ashes.  And it occurred to me, “we’re there.”  We are now enjoying the fulfillment of those prayers, wishes and hopes and I am so thankful for that.  At times it didn’t feel like it would happen; it’s just another instance when our timing doesn’t necessarily align with God’s. 

A DIFFERENT MOTHERS’ DAY

For the first time in my life I can’t go see Mama on Mother’s Day or call her on the phone.  I’ve always had the opportunity to do one or the other, just to talk a bit and tell her I love her and I’m so thankful for the hard work she did to raise two rowdy boys into responsible men.  Being a good parent is hard work; but I think being a good mother is another step up the ladder.  It’s a delicate balance between love and discipline (which is really just love in a different wrapper), protecting and letting go and the wisdom, knowledge and experience to apply the right mix for each individual child.  I’ve seen expressions of love, exasperation, frustration, and disappointment on Mama’s face all stemming from my own behavior and the last three are still burned into my memory.  But mostly I think about her look of love (in spite of the circumstances), see her smile and hear her laughter.

Since Carter died I have tried to be more intentional about telling my family I love them and following that up with actions.  I think often about the lesson Carter left behind- take nothing for granted.  None of us have the promise of tomorrow so we must act today as if we will not have another chance to share our love.  So, on this special day if you still have your mother go see her; put your arms around her and tell her you love her, sit and talk with her for a while.  And if you can’t do that, at least call her, talk for a while and tell her you love her.  Thank her for putting up with you when you were a brat.  And if your relationship with your mother needs to be repaired, today is the day to make that happen.  It doesn’t matter whose fault it was (chances are pretty good you were both at fault).

So, make the drive or make the phone call.  I would love to have that opportunity one more time.  Happy Day to all of you Mothers and thank you for the job you do!